Working Papers
A Cross-country Assessment of Commitment Behavior in the Trade Facilitation Agreement (with Carlos Zurita-Castro)
We use a new database of commitments made during the process of ratifying the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) to study variation in countries' commitment behavior. The TFA is a novel World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement because it allows developing countries to select commitments from a menu of best practices in trade facilitation, rather than to consent, or not, to a comprehensive package of negotiated commitments. The novelty of this á la carte approach to concluding trade agreements makes it worthy of study in its own right, but the commitment data also offer a high-level description of progress in an international effort to improve and to harmonize border management procedures around the globe. Our study uses data on TFA commitments to rank trade facilitation measures in terms of the apparent difficulty of operationalizing them. A regression model shows that the number of Type A trade facilitation commitments that a country makes depends heavily on its level of development and its size. We use multi-dimensional scaling techniques to study differences in the content of national commitment bundles. This approach demonstrates that variation in commitment behavior is largely heirarchical; variation in the content of countries' commitments is closely tied to the number of commitments made.
We use a new database of commitments made during the process of ratifying the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) to study variation in countries' commitment behavior. The TFA is a novel World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement because it allows developing countries to select commitments from a menu of best practices in trade facilitation, rather than to consent, or not, to a comprehensive package of negotiated commitments. The novelty of this á la carte approach to concluding trade agreements makes it worthy of study in its own right, but the commitment data also offer a high-level description of progress in an international effort to improve and to harmonize border management procedures around the globe. Our study uses data on TFA commitments to rank trade facilitation measures in terms of the apparent difficulty of operationalizing them. A regression model shows that the number of Type A trade facilitation commitments that a country makes depends heavily on its level of development and its size. We use multi-dimensional scaling techniques to study differences in the content of national commitment bundles. This approach demonstrates that variation in commitment behavior is largely heirarchical; variation in the content of countries' commitments is closely tied to the number of commitments made.
Expediting Trade: Impact Evaluation of an In-House Clearance Program (with Ana M. Fernandes and Claudia Berg)
Despite the importance of trade facilitation as an area of trade and development policy, there have been very few impact evaluations of specific trade facilitation reforms. This paper offers an evaluation of in-house clearance, a reform that allows qualified firms in Serbia to clear customs from within their own warehouse rather than at the customs office. The pooled synthetic control method applied here offers a novel solution to many of the empirical challenges that frustrate efforts to evaluate trade facilitation reforms. The method is used to estimate causal impacts on trade outcomes for 21 firms that adopted in-house clearance for import shipments. The program compressed the distribution of clearance times for adopting firms, but the estimated effects on median clearance times, inspection rates, and import value were not statistically significant. Tests for heterogeneous program impact do not indicate that the program affected adopting firms differently. Overall, the results suggest that the most evident benefit of the program for participating firms is reduced uncertainty about clearance times.
Despite the importance of trade facilitation as an area of trade and development policy, there have been very few impact evaluations of specific trade facilitation reforms. This paper offers an evaluation of in-house clearance, a reform that allows qualified firms in Serbia to clear customs from within their own warehouse rather than at the customs office. The pooled synthetic control method applied here offers a novel solution to many of the empirical challenges that frustrate efforts to evaluate trade facilitation reforms. The method is used to estimate causal impacts on trade outcomes for 21 firms that adopted in-house clearance for import shipments. The program compressed the distribution of clearance times for adopting firms, but the estimated effects on median clearance times, inspection rates, and import value were not statistically significant. Tests for heterogeneous program impact do not indicate that the program affected adopting firms differently. Overall, the results suggest that the most evident benefit of the program for participating firms is reduced uncertainty about clearance times.
Forthcoming Book Chapters
21st Century Trade Wars (with Edward J. Balistreri)
We use the GTAP data in a GTAP-in-GAMS framework to calculate the economic effects of trade policies proposed by candidate Donald Trump in his successful campaign to become President of the United States. We calibrate a multi-sector multi-regional equilibrium with Melitz (2003) technologies in the manufacturing and business services sectors. We calculate optimal bilateral tariffs against China and Mexico and consider their optimal responses. In a more detailed look at Mexico we consider the 35 percent U.S. tariff on Mexican imports that Trump proposed during the campaign, and the 20 percent tariff on Mexican imports that was suggested shortly after he took office. We model optimal Mexican responses as well as responses that would be consistent with its World Trade Organization disciplines.
We use the GTAP data in a GTAP-in-GAMS framework to calculate the economic effects of trade policies proposed by candidate Donald Trump in his successful campaign to become President of the United States. We calibrate a multi-sector multi-regional equilibrium with Melitz (2003) technologies in the manufacturing and business services sectors. We calculate optimal bilateral tariffs against China and Mexico and consider their optimal responses. In a more detailed look at Mexico we consider the 35 percent U.S. tariff on Mexican imports that Trump proposed during the campaign, and the 20 percent tariff on Mexican imports that was suggested shortly after he took office. We model optimal Mexican responses as well as responses that would be consistent with its World Trade Organization disciplines.
Tom Hertel's Influence and its Lessons about Academic Inquiry (with David Hummels)
Fields of academic inquiry differ in their preferred forms of output, in the ways in which knowledge is accumulated and stored, and so in the ways that academic influence is measured. We compare Tom Hertel’s research record to other international economists of his generation in order to illustrate the unique breadth and influence of his work, and of the GTAP project broadly. We then provide an analytical framework that helps explain the evolution of the field of international economics from a tool-use standpoint. This framework helps us to assess the academic productivity gains from creating the GTAP model and consortium. It also provides a possible answer to a significant puzzle: why is GTAP increasingly influential in the physical and biological sciences, but less so within the international economics community?
Fields of academic inquiry differ in their preferred forms of output, in the ways in which knowledge is accumulated and stored, and so in the ways that academic influence is measured. We compare Tom Hertel’s research record to other international economists of his generation in order to illustrate the unique breadth and influence of his work, and of the GTAP project broadly. We then provide an analytical framework that helps explain the evolution of the field of international economics from a tool-use standpoint. This framework helps us to assess the academic productivity gains from creating the GTAP model and consortium. It also provides a possible answer to a significant puzzle: why is GTAP increasingly influential in the physical and biological sciences, but less so within the international economics community?
In Progress
"Formalizing Risk Management in Border Inspection" (with Bilgehan Karabay)
"Structural Gravity Model Estimates of Nested CES Import Demands for Soybeans" (with Guolin Yao)
"Formalizing Risk Management in Border Inspection" (with Bilgehan Karabay)
"Structural Gravity Model Estimates of Nested CES Import Demands for Soybeans" (with Guolin Yao)
